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We have entered new era, one we haven’t seen since 2019, a world where the Federal Reserve is reducing interest rates. The 0.50% cut at the September meeting likely marked the first of a number of rate cuts by the Fed in their efforts to become more accommodative and facilitate continued economic growth and labor market strength.
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The good times are still rolling, at least for large U.S. growth stocks. While a still inverted yield curve remains a challenge for the bond market, the relative stability of rates and inflation has kept the risk trade in place for stocks helping them finish the first half of the year near all-time highs.
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As we exit the first quarter of 2024, we are all still waiting. The Federal Reserve is still waiting on more economic data to determine whether there is justification to lower short-term interest rates. Stock investors are happily putting money to work while still waiting for the economy to show signs of cooling off. Bond investors are still waiting for the rebound from 2022 that hasn’t happened yet.
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It’s back! The S&P 500 returned to within a whisper of its previous all-time high in December of 2023. The problem…the last high-water mark had been set almost exactly two years ago in December of 2021. It has been a long wait, but as we often see in times of market volatility, patient investors have been rewarded.
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Which should we cheer for… good news or bad news? As we enter the homestretch of 2023, investors are in a peculiar place. Inflation has come down significantly from the readings of late last year, but the U.S. Consumer Price Index appears to have leveled off in the 3.5% to 4.0% range. Will the Federal Reserve keep rates "higher for longer"? Two more inflation releases this year may help complete the picture and provide some insight on the path forward for interest rates and the economy in 2024.
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Markets finished the second quarter on another positive note as investors around the globe seem to be willing to maintain their risk appetite even in the face of potential interest rate increases ahead and inflation that remains stubbornly high. Stocks overcame many obstacles in the first half of 2023, but through it all, consumers continue to spend, and unemployment is still historically low.
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