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The U.S. stock market has seen higher than normal volatility during the first quarter of 2025 as investors assess President Trump’s policy implementation, developments in the artificial intelligence landscape, and mixed progress on inflation. Here we provide some additional insight into the key drivers of performance in the major market segments.
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As we welcome 2025, the market landscape looks very familiar, but the political arena has changed dramatically following the November U.S. elections. While markets have historically tended to react with skepticism to major change in Washington D.C., this year, we have seen the stock market momentum continue during the 4th quarter.
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We have entered new era, one we haven’t seen since 2019, a world where the Federal Reserve is reducing interest rates. The 0.50% cut at the September meeting likely marked the first of a number of rate cuts by the Fed in their efforts to become more accommodative and facilitate continued economic growth and labor market strength.
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The good times are still rolling, at least for large U.S. growth stocks. While a still inverted yield curve remains a challenge for the bond market, the relative stability of rates and inflation has kept the risk trade in place for stocks helping them finish the first half of the year near all-time highs.
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As we exit the first quarter of 2024, we are all still waiting. The Federal Reserve is still waiting on more economic data to determine whether there is justification to lower short-term interest rates. Stock investors are happily putting money to work while still waiting for the economy to show signs of cooling off. Bond investors are still waiting for the rebound from 2022 that hasn’t happened yet.
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It’s back! The S&P 500 returned to within a whisper of its previous all-time high in December of 2023. The problem…the last high-water mark had been set almost exactly two years ago in December of 2021. It has been a long wait, but as we often see in times of market volatility, patient investors have been rewarded.
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