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As 2023 gets underway, the markets seem to be signaling a bit of optimism. Investors saw a fourth quarter rebound that was much needed after a year of down markets and worrisome inflation and growth trends around the globe. All eyes rest on Fed Chair Jerome Powell as he and the board of governors attempt to steer the U.S. economy toward a soft landing where inflation cools and growth can be maintained.
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As the challenging environment of 2022 persists, market watchers find themselves in a strange new place. The Federal Reserve is attempting to cool the economy with a series of interest rate increases. While the prices of many commodities have come down dramatically from their highs early in the year, job growth and spending have remained quite resilient. This will be a trend worth watching as a volatile 2022 winds down.
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With the first six months of 2022 now in the books, investors must be wondering…Where is this headed? We have been hit from multiple fronts with inflation that is as high as we have seen in decades, ongoing supply chain issues, and a Federal Reserve that is delicately attempting to raise interest rates to slow the economy while hopefully skirting an extended recession.
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With the S&P 500 Index nearly in bear market territory (down 19% at the time of this writing), there is increased buzz in the media regarding the risk of economic recession. If not recession, then perhaps stagflation, which is a prolonged period of slow economic growth and high inflation. In this research note, we examine current economic conditions, inflation, monetary policy, the financial markets, and attempt to put the current market volatility into context.
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The Federal Reserve earlier this month raised the Federal Funds target rate by 0.50%, as expected. Markets have continued to be quite volatile this year as investors digest the news from the War in Ukraine, the latest inflation data, and the response of the Federal Reserve. In our latest Market Monitor, we detail what is likely driving the volatility, what it means for you, and the actions we have taken to protect your portfolio.
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Many of our clients have been asking about cryptocurrencies and how they might fit into a broader portfolio management strategy. In this short piece, we explore some perspectives on money, the history of these digital coins, and the place for crypto in the context of capital markets.
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